Friday, May 29, 2009

Glen Davis or Antonio McDyess?


(Photo courtesy of DGA Productions)

By: Greg Payne

It's pretty safe to say that signing Leon Powe will be easier than signing Glen Davis, particularly because of Powe's recent knee injury. But, Glen Davis has been a hot topic lately. Some people deem him our number one offseason priority.

Last night, we touched on some potential free agents the Celtics should be interested in this offseason, and you will notice that Antonio McDyess held the number one spot. When Chauncey Billups was traded to the Denver Nuggets at the beginning of last season, McDyess went with him, but was then waived by Denver and subsequently returned to Detroit. Before he headed back to the Palace though, there was much speculation (and hope) that McDyess would make his way to Boston.

Obviously Detroit floundered as last season progressed, while Boston made a legitimate playoff run. Needless to say, McDyess's services would have been quite useful earlier this month.

If the Celtics do in fact give McDyess a serious look, what does that mean for Glen Davis's future? If you look at Davis and McDyess you're bound to notice some pretty distinct similarities in their styles of play.

Both players would rather step out and take a 14-foot jump shot then resort to a simple drop step in the paint. You're much more likely to see a pick-and-pop with Davis and McDyess, as opposed to a pick-and-roll. Sure, both can finish inside once they get there, but their much more likely to create their own shot further out closer to the perimeter, first. It's a wash in height, as both stand comfortable at 6'9.

You're also going to notice some similar statistics between the two players, particularly playoff statistics, a time when both players raised their games for their respective teams.

McDyess averaged 13.0 points and 8.5 rebounds this past postseason, while Davis put up a very impressive 15.8 points per game mark to go along with 5.6 rebounds per contest. Give the edge in point to Davis, but a much larger edge to McDyess in rebounding.

McDyess is clearly the better rebounder of the two, as he averaged more in the postseason, as well as the regular season, when he grabbed 9.8 boards per night compared to Davis's 4.0 mark.

While the stats are nice, we need to come back to the similarities between the two of them. It really wouldn't make too much sense for the Celtics to sign both guys, with Kevin Garnett already aboard. If that were to happen, you'd be looking at three guys who basically do exactly the same thing, with Garnett just doing it better. If you take on Davis and McDyess, both of your back up power forwards play exactly the same game and both have proven they deserve playing time. So, either way you swing it, whoever does get the time, you're left with a quality guy stuck on the bench who should also be playing.

At the same time, the Celtics will also look for a backup center this summer, so it's unlikely for Davis or McDyess to find a boatload of time at that spot on the floor. This is where Powe takes on a little bit more value because his style of play differs so greatly from McDyess and Davis's.

So, let's break it down a little bit. Who would you take and why? You can make arguments for both players, so allow me to do just that.

We've been talking all along about this "window" the Celtics find themselves in. The Big Three aren't getting any younger, so the time is obviously now. Next season will strictly be about those 82+ games and not about three or four years down the road. While Davis's value obviously stretches into the long term, which is where his main argument comes into play, McDyess would be perfect for next season and possibly (he is 34 right now) the season after.

If you go for McDyess, you're grabbing a true veteran, one of the best available right now. To make matters worse, he's a class act in the locker room. Statistics wise, you won't lose much, if anything at all in scoring, and you're bringing in a better rebounder than Davis. I mentioned before how McDyess and Davis have similar styles of play. Well, McDyess has been doing the same thing for 12 years, to Davis's two. While Davis's jump shot turned into a key asset this season, he only truly developed it this year, and he does still have some growing to do. McDyess has been playing Davis's game much longer and quite frankly, is better at it, at this point. McDyess has been taking that jump shot for 12 NBA seasons. You know it's going to fall at this point.

If the Celtics sign Davis it will most likely be a multi-year deal, past the summer of 2010, simply so the team doesn't need to worry about this again as the contracts of the Big Three and Rajon Rondo become top priority. Davis still has room for improvement, and it's not far fetched to think the Celtics could be looking at a solid core of Rondo, Perkins and Davis in three or four seasons, but Davis will be much more expensive than McDyess at this point. Also, with Davis finding so much success as a starter, how will he perform back in a bench role? Will he be more inclined to find a starting job elsewhere?

Both players earned less than a million dollars last season, but with Davis's postseason performance in mind, he's a pretty hot commodity and will demand some compensation for his services. You're much more likely to see McDyess accept a small portion of the mid-level exception, or a veteran minimum salary in order to compete for a championship. McDyess for one or two years would be a great deal for Boston, but, if the price is right, three of four years of Davis doesn't sound to bad either.

In the end, they're comparable players with contrasting price tags. If the Celtics are unwilling to accommodate Davis's asking price, McDyess could be seeing the green and white next season.

Stay Tuned.

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